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Saturday, January 16, 2010

If "The Lovely Bones" Fails...

Peter Jackson is outraged by the leak of his latest film "The Lovely Bones." He fears that the leak of the movie will hinder its earning capacity.
Having seen the movie, as many of you have, I don't think it will be the P2P community that will make this movie a box office failure. Several factors will lead to its less than spectacular return on investment.
The biggest thing being that although the film is good, it is not a great film. No "Lord of the Rings" for sure. The film is good, don't get me wrong. Saoirse Ronan does a great job and the casting of her as Susie Salmon was spot on. She carries the film. The role of George Harvey played by Stanley Tucci stands out as well. Not much else to say though. Wahlberg was dry and his emotions seemed forced. And not sure what Sarandon was trying to do, she seemed just way over the top.

Secondly the murder and rape of children (yes the book) is just not something we enjoy to think about. It tugs at our heart strings, we are touched and walk away feeling somewhat sick to our stomach then we try to forget about it. In this economy I know I would rather spend my money being swept away to an alien planet and visually wowed rather than feeling the anxiety and fear of a child’s rape and murder. And yes I realize that is not what the film is about. But it is still there.

Thirdly is the budget: 100 Million. When compared to other movies that are tear jerkers this is rather high. The combined estimated budgets of The Road (20 mil), The Blind Side (29 mil and Precious (10 mil) was only 59 Million. Yes, the Road has not faired well but I think that is due to the bleak economy right now; whereas the Blind side and Precious have both faired very well.

One of the most anticipated movies of 2009, "Where the Wild Things Are", had an estimated budget of 100 million as well. Since its release in October it has only earned 87 Million Worldwide. It will need to earn another 13 Million in DVD Sales just to break even.

So in conclusion Peter Jackson should not blame the P2P community when the movie does not match the profit margin of LOTR. He should blame himself. High production cost, questionable casting and poor editing will lead to the less than spectacular performance of the movie. Not a handful of people who have seen the movie via the Internet.

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